[Vision2020] Allawi Warns of Civil War

[Tom Hansen]

Greetings -

 

Remember back during the presidential debates when the CIA warned of best
case/worst case scenarios?  

 

Remember when the CIA stated that the worst case scenario concerned US
involvements in an Iraqi civil war?  

 

Remember when Bush said that they were poorly exaggerating?

 

Well . . . now the man that Bush appointed as interim prime minister of Iraq
is giving the same warning, only this time the potential is getting greater.

 

This in from today's (December 21, 2004) Spokesman Review.

 

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Allawi warns of civil war 

 

Shiites bury dead after bombings kill 67

 

Dusan Stojanovic

Associated Press

December 21, 2004

 

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Iraq's interim prime minister warned Monday that insurgents
are trying to foment sectarian civil war as well as derail elections, while
thousands of mourners turned out for funerals in the Shiite holy cities of
Najaf and Karbala a day after car bombs killed 67 people.

 

Prime Minister Ayad Allawi said the mainly Sunni Muslim insurgents, blamed
for Sunday's bloody attacks, want to "create ethnic and religious tensions,
problems and conflicts . to destroy the unity of this country."

 

"These attacks are designed to stop the political process from taking place
in Iraq," Allawi told reporters. He added that his administration would not
be deterred despite expecting more strikes before key Jan. 30 parliamentary
elections - the first free vote in Iraq since the overthrow of the monarchy
in 1958.

 

Although members of his Cabinet have made similar warnings about the danger
of a civil war, Allawi himself had regularly played down that possibility.

 

Political and religious leaders of the Shiite community also have discounted
the threat of an armed conflict with Sunnis, instructing their followers not
to react violently to attacks. These included a bombing in August 2003 that
killed Ayatollah Mohammed Baqir al-Hakim, leader of the main Shiite party -
the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq.

 

 

In a new attack in Karbala on Monday, a bomb exploded at a police
checkpoint, damaging nearby buildings but inflicting no casualties. Police
said they arrested the attacker. In Najaf, police said they defused a bomb
stashed in a car.

 

Shiite Muslims, who make up around 60 percent of Iraq's people, have been
strong supporters of the electoral process, which they expect to reverse the
longtime domination of Iraq's Sunni minority. The insurgency is believed to
draw most of its support from Sunnis, who provided much of Saddam Hussein's
former Baath Party leadership.

 

Shiite officials and clerics blamed Sunnis for Sunday's bombings, which
caused the worst carnage in Iraq since July. The strikes appeared designed
to cause heavy casualties, and provoke reprisals by Shiites against Sunnis.

 

The bombings - aimed at a funeral procession in Najaf and a packed bus
station in Karbala - again highlighted the capability of the guerrillas to
strike. Their attacks have undermined confidence in repeated claims by U.S.
military commanders that the capture of the insurgent stronghold of Fallujah
last month dealt a serious blow to the insurgency.

 

The head of Iraq's electoral commission appealed to security forces to
protect his officials after three were shot to death in a daylight attack
Sunday by dozens of guerrillas in the heart of Baghdad. The ambush was the
latest attack to target Iraqi officials working to organize the vote.

 

"We send an appeal to the Iraqi government and all the people to protect our
employees," Abdul Hussein Al-Hindawi said. "We have no real protection
because we work everywhere in the country and have more than 6,000
employees."

 

In New York, U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan strongly condemned Sunday's
violence and called on Iraqis "to come together in a spirit of national
reconciliation," U.N. spokesman Fred Eckhard said.

 

"No cause can justify the killings of innocent civilians and the
cold-blooded murder of election workers," Eckhard said.

 

Allawi said Monday that a big factor in the strength of the insurgency was
the dismantling of Iraq's security forces after the U.S.-led invasion that
ousted Saddam's regime.

 

"What is happening is that we are facing an enemy heavily supported even in
some cases with superior weapons," he said. "We will have setbacks, we are
having setbacks, but we are determined to continue the fight."

 

Police and troops were nowhere to be seen Sunday while the gunmen conducted
spot checks of cars and their occupants on Haifa Street, the capital's main
thoroughfare. It was only after the insurgents had fled after the slayings
of the election workers that U.S. Apache helicopters appeared over the
scene.

 

There have been fears the intimidation campaign aimed at electoral workers
will not only hurt preparations for the ballot, but also could reduce voter
turnout enough to bring the legitimacy of the election into question.

 

Iran's supreme leader on Monday called the planned elections a sham, saying
they were designed to help the United States keep control of Iraq's oil
wealth.

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