[Vision2020] Global Warming

Troy Merrill troy1@moscow.com
Tue, 23 Sep 2003 12:14:25 -0700


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Mr. Nieuwsma,

Dr. Vardiman may have more credibility if he were writing in a peer =
reviewed science journal, cited anyone but himself and colleges at the =
Institute for Creation Research, and if his results were not directly =
contradicted by mainstream scientists (see =
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/005.htm)

Troy Merrill
  ----- Original Message -----=20
  From: Joshua Nieuwsma=20
  To: vision=20
  Sent: Tuesday, September 23, 2003 10:31 AM
  Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Global Warming


  A balanced (?) view on global warming from a science perspective. I =
have bolded/underlined interesting parts. Have fun wading through this!

  Earth's Climate Thermostat
  by Larry Vardiman, Ph.D.*=20
  Introduction=20

  Global warming, the greenhouse effect, and climate change continue to =
receive attention in the media and scientific circles. A recent decision =
by President George W. Bush not to ratify the Kyoto Accords on Carbon =
Dioxide (CO2) emissions has spurred all kinds of political commentary. =
Yet, scientists remain divided on the legitimacy of attributing global =
warming to human releases of CO2. Approximately half of the atmospheric =
science community remains skeptical of global warming. Some of these =
atmospheric experts have gone so far as to sign statements refuting the =
results of theoretical climate models used to predict future warming.1=20

  In June 1990 I first discussed some of the issues at play in the =
greenhouse controversy. I went so far as to suggest that cloudiness had =
not been treated adequately in global climate models and could function =
as a negative feedback mechanism in the atmosphere which served to limit =
global warming.2 I have also discussed global warming in light of what I =
believe are mistaken interpretations of the Ice Age.3, 4 Since 1990 the =
connection between carbon dioxide and global warming has become slightly =
clearer, but significant governmental regulation has been proposed. In =
this article I will attempt to restrict my comments to the scientific =
aspects of the controversy. Fortunately, cooler heads currently prevail =
in Wash! ington, D.C., forestalling implementation of unnecessary =
policies advocated by our former Vice President.5=20

  Atmospheric Concentrations of CO2
  The concentration of CO2 at the observatory on Mauna Loa, Hawaii, has =
exhibited a continuing increase since 1990.6 Figure 1 shows this =
increase through 2000 with annual oscillations due to the summer growth =
of continental and marine vegetation in the northern hemisphere which =
extracts CO2 from the atmosphere in the summer and releases it in the =
winter. Solid horizontal lines show estimated levels which prevailed in =
1900 and 1940.7 The magnitude of the atmospheric increase during the =
1980s and 1990s was about three gigatons of carbon (Gt) per year. This =
compares to 5.5 Gt per year estimated for the human release of CO2, =
primarily from coal, oil, and natural gas, and the production of cement. =
However, these numbers are small compared to the reservoirs of carbon: =
750 G! t in the atmosphere, 1,000 Gt in the surface ocean, 2,200 Gt in =
the vegetation, soils, and detritus, and 38,000 Gt in the intermediate =
and deep oceans.

      =20
        Figure 1. Atmospheric CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.6 =
Approximate global concentrations of CO2 in 1900 and 1940 are also shown =
as horizontal lines.7=20
      =20

  Temperature Trends=20
  It is apparent that CO2 is increasing in the atmosphere, whether for =
natural or human causes. However, does this rise in CO2 result in =
increased warming of the atmosphere? Figure 2 shows the annual mean =
surface temperature in the contiguous United States between 1895 and =
1997 as compiled by the National Climate Data Center.8 The trend line =
for this 103-year period has a slope of 0.22oC per century. Note, =
however, that the slope from 1940 to 1997 is much lower at 0.08oC per =
century during this period when the greatest increase in CO2 was =
observed. The greatest rate of estimated warming does not seem to =
coincide with the period of greatest increase in atmospheric CO2.=20

  Questions have been raised about the accuracy of the surface =
temperature measurements used in these calculations. For example, the =
so-called "heat island effect" may have caused the temperature =
observations to be biased to higher values toward the end of the century =
as weather-observing locations were encroached upon by growing cities. =
It is well known that temperatures in cities exhibit higher temperatures =
than surrounding countrysides. It is likely that 100-year-old weather =
stations have a built-in warming trend due to this effect.=20

      =20
        Figure 2. Annual mean surface temperature in the U.S. between =
1895 and 1997.8=20
      =20

  In an attempt to remove this bias, temperature trends of radiosonde =
measurements from 63 upper-air stations between 90=B0N and 90=B0S =
latitude from 1958 to 1996 and measurements of a satellite microwave =
sounding unit between 83=B0N and 83=B0S latitude from 1979 to 1997 of =
global lower tropospheric temperatures were studied. Both of these =
systems show a slight decline in temperature since 1979.=20

  These temperature trends all fly in the face of projections by the =
United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).9 The =
IPCC has routinely stated that increases in global atmospheric =
temperatures by as much as 5oC (10oF) would occur if the concentration =
of CO2 were to double. The IPCC has been the primary source of =
scientific expertise which has led to the Kyoto agreement that CO2 =
emissions be cut drastically in developed countries. Recommendations by =
the IPCC are based primarily on the results of global climate models =
which still do not include an adequate treatment of many physical =
mechanisms like cloud cover.=20

  A Climate Thermostat=20
  In March of 2001 a significant paper by Richard Lindzen of MIT was =
published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society which =
addresses the cloud-cover feedback mechanism.10 Dr. Lindzen has been a =
long-time critic of the IPCC and a highly respected researcher in the =
atmospheric sciences. His paper reports that clouds in the tropics =
respond to warmer sea-surface temperatures (SST) by permitting long-wave =
radiation to space to increase, causing greater cooling of the =
atmosphere. This negative feedback mechanism would more than cancel all =
the positive feedbacks included in the more sensitive current climate =
models.=20

  Dr. Lindzen calculated the average SST as a function of cloud cover =
and found a strong negative relationship. His explanation for the =
negative relationship is that warmer SSTs lead to higher humidities and =
greater convective activity. This greater convective activity is more =
efficient in creating rainfall, leaving less moisture to form cirrus =
anvils which prevent long-wave radiation from escaping to space. =
Consequently, warmer SSTs lead to more rapid cooling of the atmosphere =
and stabilization of the earth's temperature.=20

  Conclusions=20
  Richard Lindzen's mechanism works differently than the one I proposed =
ten years ago, but the result is similar. Only under catastrophic =
conditions will the atmosphere experience major changes. This climate =
condition does not lead to a runaway greenhouse or a new ice age. The =
view of a climate with a built-in thermostat contrasts strongly with the =
conventional worldview that the atmosphere is unstable and a minor =
perturbation could lead to a natural catastrophe of either fire or ice.=20

  References=20
    1 Seitz, Frederick, 1998, Petition Project: Global Warming Review, =
see info@oism.org, January.=20
    2 Vardiman, Larry, 1990, "The Christian and the Greenhouse Effect," =
ICR Impact No. 204, June.
    3 Vardiman, Larry, 1994, "Out of Whose Womb Came the Ice?" ICR =
Impact No. 254, August.
    4 Vardiman, Larry, 1995, "A Faulty Climate Trigger," ICR Impact No. =
261, March.=20
    5 Gore, Albert, Jr., 1992, Earth in the Balance, Houghton Mifflin.=20
    6 Keeling, C.D. and T.P. Whorf, 1997, Trends Online: A Compendium of =
Data on Global Change, Carbon! Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak =
Ridge National Laboratory.
    7 Idso, S.B., 1989, Carbon Dioxide and Global Change: Earth in =
Transition, IBR Press, 7.
    8 Brown, W.O. and Heim, R.R., 1996, National Climate Data Center, =
Climate Variation Bulletin, 8, Historical Climatology Series 4-7, =
December.=20
    9 Houghton, John T. et al., 1995, Report of the Intergovernmental =
Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.=20
    10 Lindzen, Richard S., Ming-Dah Chou, and Arthur Y. Hou, 2001, =
"Does the Earth Have an Adaptive Infrared Iris?" Bulletin of the =
American Meteorological Society, 82, 417-432, March.


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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Mr. Nieuwsma,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Dr. Vardiman may have more credibility =
if he were=20
writing in a peer reviewed science journal,&nbsp;cited anyone but =
himself and=20
colleges at the Institute for Creation Research, and if his results were =
not=20
directly contradicted by mainstream scientists (see <A=20
href=3D"http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/005.htm">http://www.grid=
a.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/005.htm</A>)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Troy Merrill</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
  <A title=3Djoshuahendrik@yahoo.com =
href=3D"mailto:joshuahendrik@yahoo.com">Joshua=20
  Nieuwsma</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dvision2020@moscow.com=20
  href=3D"mailto:vision2020@moscow.com">vision</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, September 23, =
2003 10:31=20
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [Vision2020] =
Global=20
  Warming</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV>A balanced (?)&nbsp;view on global warming from a science =
perspective. I=20
  have bolded/underlined interesting parts. Have fun wading through =
this!</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=3D4><B>Earth's Climate Thermostat<BR></B>by <B><A=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.icr.org/creationscientists/physicalscientists.html#lva=
rdiman"=20
  target=3D_blank>Larry Vardiman, Ph.D.</A></B></FONT><A=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.icr.org/newsletters/impact/impactsept01.html#who"><FON=
T=20
  size=3D4>*</FONT></A><B> </B></DIV>
  <DIV>
  <P><B>Introduction</B> </P>
  <P align=3Dleft>Global warming, the greenhouse effect, and climate =
change=20
  continue to receive attention in the media and scientific circles. A =
recent=20
  decision by President George W. Bush not to ratify the Kyoto Accords =
on Carbon=20
  Dioxide (CO<SUB>2</SUB>) emissions has spurred all kinds of political=20
  commentary. Yet, scientists remain divided on the legitimacy of =
attributing=20
  global warming to human releases of CO<SUB>2</SUB>. =
<STRONG>Approximately half=20
  of the atmospheric science community remains skeptical of global=20
  warming.</STRONG> <STRONG>Some of these atmospheric experts have gone =
so far=20
  as to sign statements refuting the results of theoretical climate =
models used=20
  to predict future warming.<SUP><A=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.icr.org/newsletters/impact/impactsept01.html#1">1</A><=
/SUP></STRONG>=20
  </P>
  <P align=3Dleft>In June 1990 I first discussed some of the issues at =
play in the=20
  greenhouse controversy. I went so far as to suggest that cloudiness =
had not=20
  been treated adequately in global climate models and could function as =
a=20
  negative feedback mechanism in the atmosphere which served to limit =
global=20
  warming.<SUP><A=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.icr.org/newsletters/impact/impactsept01.html#2">2</A><=
/SUP> I=20
  have also discussed global warming in light of what I believe are =
mistaken=20
  interpretations of the Ice Age.<SUP><A=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.icr.org/newsletters/impact/impactsept01.html#3">3</A>,=
 <A=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.icr.org/newsletters/impact/impactsept01.html#4">4</A><=
/SUP>=20
  Since 1990 the connection between carbon dioxide and global warming =
has become=20
  slightly clearer, but significant governmental regulation has been =
proposed.=20
  <STRONG>In this article I will attempt to restrict my comments to the=20
  scientific aspects of the controversy.</STRONG> Fortunately, cooler =
heads=20
  currently prevail in Wash! ington, D.C., forestalling implementation =
of=20
  unnecessary policies advocated by our former Vice President.<SUP><A=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.icr.org/newsletters/impact/impactsept01.html#5">5</A><=
/SUP>=20
  </P>
  <H3 align=3Dcenter><B>Atmospheric Concentrations of =
CO<SUB>2</SUB></B></H3>
  <P align=3Dleft>The concentration of CO<SUB>2</SUB> at the observatory =
on Mauna=20
  Loa, Hawaii, has exhibited a continuing increase since 1990.<SUP><A=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.icr.org/newsletters/impact/impactsept01.html#6">6</A><=
/SUP>=20
  Figure 1 shows this increase through 2000 with annual oscillations due =
to the=20
  summer growth of continental and marine vegetation in the northern =
hemisphere=20
  which extracts CO<SUB>2</SUB> from the atmosphere in the summer and =
releases=20
  it in the winter. Solid horizontal lines show estimated levels which =
prevailed=20
  in 1900 and 1940.<SUP><A=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.icr.org/newsletters/impact/impactsept01.html#7">7</A><=
/SUP>=20
  The magnitude of the atmospheric increase during the 1980s and 1990s =
was about=20
  three gigatons of carbon (Gt) per year. This compares to 5.5 Gt per =
year=20
  estimated for the human release of CO<SUB>2</SUB>, primarily from =
coal, oil,=20
  and natural gas, and the production of cement. However, these numbers =
are=20
  small compared to the reservoirs of carbon: 750 G! t in the =
atmosphere, 1,000=20
  Gt in the surface ocean, 2,200 Gt in the vegetation, soils, and =
detritus, and=20
  38,000 Gt in the intermediate and deep oceans.</P>
  <CENTER>
  <TABLE cellSpacing=3D4 cellPadding=3D4 width=3D420>
    <TBODY>
    <TR>
      <TD><IMG height=3D236 alt=3D"Table 1"=20
        src=3D"http://www.icr.org/newsletters/images/impact1090101.gif" =
width=3D330=20
        align=3Dmiddle border=3D0></TD></TR>
    <TR>
      <TD>
        <P align=3Dleft><B>Figure 1.</B> Atmospheric CO<SUB>2</SUB> =
concentration=20
        at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.<SUP>6</SUP> Approximate global =
concentrations of=20
        CO<SUB>2</SUB> in 1900 and 1940 are also shown as horizontal=20
        lines.<SUP>7</SUP> </P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></CENTER>
  <H3 align=3Dcenter><B>Temperature Trends</B> </H3>
  <P align=3Dleft>It is apparent that CO<SUB>2</SUB> is increasing in =
the=20
  atmosphere, whether for natural or human causes. However, does this =
rise in=20
  CO<SUB>2</SUB> result in increased warming of the atmosphere? Figure 2 =
shows=20
  the annual mean surface temperature in the contiguous United States =
between=20
  1895 and 1997 as compiled by the National Climate Data Center.<SUP><A=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.icr.org/newsletters/impact/impactsept01.html#8">8</A><=
/SUP>=20
  The trend line for this 103-year period has a slope of =
0.22<SUP>o</SUP>C per=20
  century. Note, however, that the slope from 1940 to 1997 is much lower =
at=20
  0.08<SUP>o</SUP>C per century during this period when the greatest =
increase in=20
  CO<SUB>2</SUB> was observed. <STRONG>The greatest rate of estimated =
warming=20
  does not seem to coincide with the period of greatest increase in =
atmospheric=20
  CO<SUB>2</SUB>. </STRONG></P>
  <P align=3Dleft>Questions have been raised about the accuracy of the =
surface=20
  temperature measurements used in these calculations. For example, the=20
  so-called "heat island effect" may have caused the temperature =
observations to=20
  be biased to higher values toward the end of the century as =
weather-observing=20
  locations were encroached upon by growing cities. It is well known =
that=20
  temperatures in cities exhibit higher temperatures than surrounding=20
  countrysides. It is likely that 100-year-old weather stations have a =
built-in=20
  warming trend due to this effect. </P>
  <CENTER>
  <TABLE cellSpacing=3D4 cellPadding=3D4 width=3D400>
    <TBODY>
    <TR>
      <TD>
        <DIV align=3Dcenter><IMG height=3D191 alt=3D"Table 2"=20
        src=3D"http://www.icr.org/newsletters/images/impact2090101.gif" =
width=3D330=20
        align=3Dmiddle border=3D0></DIV></TD></TR>
    <TR>
      <TD>
        <P align=3Dleft><B>Figure 2.</B> Annual mean surface temperature =
in the=20
        U.S. between 1895 and 1997.<SUP>8</SUP>=20
</P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></CENTER>
  <P>In an attempt to remove this bias, temperature trends of radiosonde =

  measurements from 63 upper-air stations between 90=B0N and 90=B0S =
latitude from=20
  1958 to 1996 and measurements of a satellite microwave sounding unit =
between=20
  83=B0N and 83=B0S latitude from 1979 to 1997 of global lower =
tropospheric=20
  temperatures were studied. <STRONG>Both of these systems show a slight =
decline=20
  in temperature since 1979.</STRONG> </P>
  <P><STRONG>These temperature trends all fly in the face of projections =
by the=20
  United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change =
(IPCC).<SUP><A=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.icr.org/newsletters/impact/impactsept01.html#9">9</A><=
/SUP></STRONG>=20
  The IPCC has routinely stated that increases in global atmospheric=20
  temperatures by as much as 5<SUP>o</SUP>C (10<SUP>o</SUP>F) would =
occur if the=20
  concentration of CO<SUB>2 </SUB>were to double. The IPCC has been the =
primary=20
  source of scientific expertise which has led to the Kyoto agreement =
that=20
  CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions be cut drastically in developed countries.=20
  <STRONG>Recommendations by the IPCC are based primarily on the results =
of=20
  global climate models which still do not include an adequate treatment =
of many=20
  physical mechanisms like cloud cover.</STRONG> </P>
  <H3 align=3Dcenter><B>A Climate Thermostat</B> </H3>
  <P align=3Dleft>In March of 2001 a significant paper by Richard =
Lindzen of MIT=20
  was published in the <I>Bulletin of the American Meteorological =
Society</I>=20
  which addresses the cloud-cover feedback mechanism.<SUP><A=20
  =
href=3D"http://www.icr.org/newsletters/impact/impactsept01.html#10">10</A=
></SUP>=20
  Dr. Lindzen has been a long-time critic of the IPCC and a highly =
respected=20
  researcher in the atmospheric sciences. His paper reports that clouds =
in the=20
  tropics respond to warmer sea-surface temperatures (SST) by permitting =

  long-wave radiation to space to increase, <U>causing greater cooling =
of the=20
  atmosphere</U>. <STRONG>This negative feedback mechanism would more =
than=20
  cancel all the positive feedbacks included in the more sensitive =
current=20
  climate models.</STRONG> </P>
  <P>Dr. Lindzen calculated the average SST as a function of cloud cover =
and=20
  found a strong negative relationship. <STRONG>His explanation for the =
negative=20
  relationship is that warmer SSTs lead to higher humidities and greater =

  convective activity.</STRONG> This greater convective activity is more =

  efficient in creating rainfall, leaving less moisture to form cirrus =
anvils=20
  which prevent long-wave radiation from escaping to space.=20
  <STRONG>Consequently, warmer SSTs lead to more rapid cooling of the =
atmosphere=20
  and stabilization of the earth's temperature.</STRONG> </P>
  <H3 align=3Dcenter><B>Conclusions</B> </H3>
  <P>Richard Lindzen's mechanism works differently than the one I =
proposed ten=20
  years ago, but the result is similar.&nbsp;<STRONG>Only under =
catastrophic=20
  conditions will the atmosphere experience major =
changes.</STRONG>&nbsp;This=20
  <STRONG>climate condition does not lead to a<I> runaway greenhouse</I> =
or a=20
  new <I>ice age</I>.</STRONG> The view of a climate with a built-in =
thermostat=20
  contrasts strongly with the conventional worldview that the atmosphere =
is=20
  unstable and a minor perturbation could lead to a natural catastrophe =
of=20
  either fire or ice. </P>
  <H3 align=3Dcenter><B>References</B> </H3>
  <BLOCKQUOTE><SUP><A name=3D1>1</A></SUP> Seitz, Frederick, 1998, =
Petition=20
    Project: Global Warming Review, see info@oism.org, January. =
<BR><SUP><A=20
    name=3D2>2</A></SUP> Vardiman, Larry, 1990, "The Christian and the =
Greenhouse=20
    Effect," ICR <A =
href=3D"http://www.icr.org/pubs/imp/imp-204.htm"><B>Impact No.=20
    204</B></A>, June.<BR><SUP><A name=3D3>3</A></SUP> Vardiman, Larry, =
1994, "Out=20
    of Whose Womb Came the Ice?" <B>ICR <A=20
    href=3D"http://www.icr.org/pubs/imp/imp-254.htm">Impact No. =
254</A></B>,=20
    August.<BR><SUP><A name=3D3>4</A></SUP> Vardiman, Larry, 1995, "A =
Faulty=20
    Climate Trigger," ICR <A=20
    href=3D"http://www.icr.org/pubs/imp/imp-261.htm"><B>Impact No. =
261</B></A>,=20
    March. <BR><SUP><A name=3D5>5</A></SUP> Gore, Albert, Jr., 1992, =
<I>Earth in=20
    the Balance</I>, Houghton Mifflin. <BR><SUP><A name=3D6>6</A></SUP> =
Keeling,=20
    C.D. and T.P. Whorf, 1997, <I><A =
href=3D"http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/">Trends=20
    Online: A Compendium of Data on Global Change</A></I>, <A=20
    href=3D"http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp001r7/">Carbon! Dioxide =
Information=20
    Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory</A>.<BR><SUP><A=20
    name=3D7>7</A></SUP> Idso, S.B., 1989, <I>Carbon Dioxide and Global =
Change:=20
    Earth in Transition</I>, IBR Press, <B>7</B>.<BR><SUP><A =
name=3D8>8</A></SUP>=20
    Brown, W.O. and Heim, R.R., 1996, <A=20
    href=3D"http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/">National Climate Data Center</A>, =
<A=20
    =
href=3D"http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/01/documentlibrary/cvb.html/">Climate=20
    Variation Bulletin</A>, 8, Historical Climatology Series 4-7, =
December.=20
    <BR><SUP><A name=3D9>9</A></SUP> Houghton, John T. et al., 1995, =
<I>Report of=20
    the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</I>, Cambridge =
University=20
    Press. <BR><SUP><A name=3D10>10</A></SUP> Lindzen, Richard S., =
Ming-Dah Chou,=20
    and Arthur Y. Hou, 2001, "Does the Earth Have an Adaptive Infrared =
Iris?"=20
    <I>Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society</I>, <B>82</B>, =
417-432,=20
    March.</BLOCKQUOTE></DIV>
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