[Vision2020] Fwd: Earth Policy news - Record Heat Wave in Europe Takes 35,000
Lives
Tom Trail
ttrail@moscow.com
Sat, 11 Oct 2003 09:52:41 -0700
>Visionaries:
This article may be of interest.
Rep. Tom Trail
>
>RECORD HEAT WAVE IN EUROPE TAKES 35,000 LIVES
>Far Greater Losses May Lie Ahead
>http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/Update29.htm
>
>Janet Larsen
>
>A record heat wave scorched Europe in August 2003, claiming an estimated
>35,000 lives. In France alone, 14,802 people died from the searing
>temperatures--more than 19 times the death toll from the SARS epidemic
>worldwide. In the worst heat spell in decades, temperatures in France soared
>to 104 degrees Fahrenheit (40 degrees Celsius) and remained unusually high
>for two weeks.
>
>This summer's high temperatures also hit other European countries. Germany
>saw some 7,000 people die from the heat. Spain and Italy each suffered
>heat-related losses of nearly 4,200 lives. The heat wave claimed at least
>1,300 lives in Portugal and up to 1,400 lives in the Netherlands.
>
>In London--which on August 10th recorded its first triple-digit Fahrenheit
>temperature-an estimated 900 people died from the heat. Heat-related
>fatalities across the United Kingdom reached 2,045. In Belgium, temperatures
>higher than any in the Royal Meteorological Society's register dating back
>to 1833 brought 150 deaths. Since reports are not yet available for all
>European countries, the total heat death toll for the continent is likely to
>be substantially larger. (See
>http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/Update29_data.htm for more information.)
>
>August 2003 was the warmest August on record in the northern hemisphere, but
>according to the projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
>Change (IPCC), even more extreme weather events lie ahead. By the end of the
>century, the world's average temperature is projected to increase by
>2.5-10.4 degrees Fahrenheit (1.4-5.8 degrees Celsius). As the mercury
>climbs, more frequent and more severe heat waves are in store.
>
>Though heat waves rarely are given adequate attention, they claim more lives
>each year than floods, tornadoes, and hurricanes combined. Heat waves are a
>silent killer, mostly affecting the elderly, the very young, or the
>chronically ill.
>
>Under normal circumstances, humans maintain a body temperature around 98.6
>degrees Fahrenheit. When subject to extreme heat, the body attempts to
>maintain this ideal temperature by varying blood circulation and perspiring.
>When the internal body temperature rises above 104 degrees Fahrenheit, vital
>organs are at risk. If the body temperature is not brought down, death
>follows.
>
>The threshold ambient temperature at which more people are at risk for
>heat-related health problems varies greatly by location. In general, when
>summer temperatures range 10 degrees Fahrenheit or more above the norm,
>incidences of heat-related illness increase dramatically. High humidity
>compounds the effects of high heat by reducing evaporation, rendering
>perspiration a less-effective cooling mechanism. When excessive heat
>prevails for more than two consecutive days, the risk of heat sickness and
>death escalates. Health and social services may be overwhelmed.
>
>Heat waves take the greatest human toll in cities. Urban centers, where the
>area of heat-absorbing dark roofs and pavement exceeds the area covered by
>cooling vegetation, are like "heat islands" and can be as much as 10 degrees
>Fahrenheit warmer than the surrounding countryside. While people in rural
>areas generally get some relief from the heat when temperatures fall at
>night, urban areas stay warmer around the clock. Air pollution, which
>usually is worse in cities than in the countryside, can also exacerbate the
>health-damaging effects of high temperatures by further stressing the body's
>respiratory and circulatory systems.
>
>Several of the worst heat waves of the twentieth century occurred in U.S.
>cities. In 1955, an eight-day run of temperatures over 100 degrees
>Fahrenheit in Los Angeles left 946 people dead. In 1972, New York City
>suffered a two-week heat wave that claimed 891 lives. More recently, an
>extreme heat wave in Chicago in 1995 killed 739 people in a matter of days.
>Slow political recognition of the threat and an overloaded response system
>worsened the effects of the weather anomaly.
>
>A lack of public recognition of the danger that high temperatures pose adds
>to the lethality of heat waves. Heat wave warnings often do not carry the
>weight of other natural disaster alerts. Except during major outbreaks,
>heat-related deaths often go unreported, and few governments systematically
>keep records of them.
>
>Even once a heat wave has passed, politicians are reluctant to acknowledge
>its toll. Chicago's mayor denied the severity of the city's 1995 heat wave.
>In Europe, it took over a month for France's government to release heat wave
>fatality estimates that corroborated estimates from overwhelmed undertakers.
>Several neighboring governments are still challenging reports from medical
>examiners.
>
>Even in India, where heat-related fatalities in the thousands during
>pre-monsoonal high temperatures are no longer uncommon, the National
>Disaster Management Cell does not classify heat waves as a natural disaster.
>While accurate data are hard to come by, it appears that India has seen the
>number of deaths due to heat climb over the years as populations have grown
>and temperatures have risen. In May 2003, peak temperatures of 113-117
>degrees Fahrenheit (45-49 degrees Celsius) claimed over 1,600 lives
>throughout the country. In the state of Andhra Pradesh alone, some 1,200
>people died from the heat. A year earlier, a one-week heat wave with
>temperatures topping 122 degrees Fahrenheit took over 1,000 lives.
>
>Over the last 25 years the average global temperature rose by 1 degree
>Fahrenheit, or 0.6 degrees Celsius. The IPCC's projected rise in temperature
>for this century is a global average, but the temperature is expected to
>rise more over land, where people live, than over sea. As temperatures
>continue to climb, the toll of heat waves in individual countries could jump
>from the thousands to the tens of thousands. The World Meteorological
>Organization estimates that the number of heat-related fatalities could
>double in less than 20 years.
>
>Already we are seeing evidence of more frequent heat waves. In India, death
>tolls from heat that were recorded over an entire summer some 10 years ago
>are now occurring in just one week. In the United States, a 1998 study of
>summertime temperatures using data from 1949 to 1995 found that the
>frequency of extremely hot and humid days and the occurrence of multiple-day
>heat waves increased significantly during that period. Some of the increase
>is due to urbanization, a trend that is expected to continue for the
>foreseeable future.
>
>Although the historical data for heat waves leave much to be desired, we can
>say with confidence that the August heat wave in Europe has broken all
>records for heat-induced human fatalities. As awareness of the scale of this
>tragedy spreads, it is likely to generate pressure to reduce carbon
>emissions. For many of the millions who suffered through these record heat
>waves and the relatives of the tens of thousands who died, cutting carbon
>emissions is becoming a pressing personal issue.
>
># # #
>
>The Human Toll of Heat Waves: Selected Examples from Europe in August 2003
>
>Country Number
> of Fatalities Other Details
>
>France 14,802 Temperatures soared to 104 degrees
>Fahrenheit in parts of the country; temperatures in Paris were the highest
>since record-keeping began in 1873.
>
>Germany 7,000 High temperatures of up to 105.4 degrees
>Fahrenheit, the hottest since records began in 1901, raised mortality some
>10 percent above average.
>
>Spain 4,230 High temperatures coupled with elevated
>ground-level ozone concentrations exceeding the European Union's health-risk
>threshold.
>
>Italy 4,175 Temperatures in parts of the country
>averaged 16 degrees Fahrenheit higher than previous year.
>
>United Kingdom 2,045 The first triple digit (Fahrenheit)
>temperatures were recorded in London.
>
>Netherlands 1,400 Temperatures ranged some 14 degrees warmer
>than normal.
>
>Portugal 1,316 Temperatures were above 104 degrees
>Fahrenheit throughout much of the country.
>
>Belgium 150 Temperatures exceeded any in the Royal
>Meteorological Society's records dating back to 1833.
>
>TOTAL OF ABOVE
>COUNTRIES 35,118
>
>Key: To convert temperatures from Fahrenheit to Celsius, subtract 32 and
>divide by 1.8.
>
>Compiled by Janet Larsen, Earth Policy Institute, October 2003.
>For more information see <http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/Update29.htm>.
>
>
>Additional data and information sources at www.earth-policy.org or contact
>jlarsen@earth-policy.org
>For reprint permission contact rjkauffman@earth-policy.org
>
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--
Dr. Tom Trail
International Trails
1375 Mt. View Rd.
Moscow, Id. 83843
Tel: (208) 882-6077
Fax: (208) 882-0896
e mail ttrail@moscow.com