[Vision2020] MSD trends
Donovan Arnold
donovanarnold@hotmail.com
Sun, 01 Jun 2003 11:09:52 -0700
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<P>Dale,<BR>> > </P></DIV>
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<P>>You wrote:</P>
<P>"First, concerning the validity of those numbers. I received them directly </P>
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<DIV></DIV>>from MSD, and they had them printed out from the State Board of Education in
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<DIV></DIV>>Boise. They are from the Board's payroll computer in Idaho by which they
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<DIV></DIV>>gather all of the statistics for the entire state. In those graphs, there
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<DIV></DIV>>were no massaging of numbers. What you saw plotted were the final numbers I
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<P>>received directly from them."</P>
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<P>I was not questioning the graph plots for the costs. I know that information is accurate. I am questioning the validity of the prediction that you or anyone knows the population of students in the MSD for 2008-2009 with any certainty(I want the confidence interval for this test and variables they used). The numbers for the MSD have gone up and down by as much as 10% every decade since the 1950's when my mom was going to school here. Back then, the Catholic private school reduced the numbers for the public schools. Then the population of Moscow increased and the school eventually did not do the same percentage. Then the University population went up and down too, also effecting the number of students going to K-12. Nobody can predict the economy of the State and the University students in the year 2008-09. </P>
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<DIV></DIV>>Second, those numbers are collected for every school district in Idaho. If
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<DIV></DIV>>there is a bias in the numbers, then there is a systematic bias across the
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<DIV></DIV>>state. That means an argument of "well, MSD has these special things"
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<DIV></DIV>>doesn't fly. We're one of 114 school districts in the state.
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<DIV></DIV>>"Third, concerning your question about disabilities:
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<DIV></DIV>>* Why do you think that the disability rate is increasing
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<DIV></DIV>>exponentially? Why would that be? Can you tell me what the disability
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<P>>numbers are for Idaho and MSD?"</P>
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<P>I know that in the last few years the number of students diagnosed with a disability has increased. The cost of diagnosing and treating a child with a disability has increased. I also know that government regulations have increased costs as well. In addition, the number of students with a disability is more likely now to attend a public school then in the past. </P>
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<DIV></DIV>>* How much more does a child with disabilities cost to educate over
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<DIV></DIV>>and above a non-disabled child? (BTW, I know the answer to that one).
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<DIV></DIV>>Fourth, the State of Idaho's spending only increased by a factor of 2.1 over
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<DIV></DIV>>the same period of time. MSD was 3.7. Guess where MSD got the extra
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<P>>$3,111,696? Yup, local taxes have increased by that much just for MSD! </P>
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<P>This I agree fully with you. I am 100% against property taxes. I think it should be illegal to tax people continuously on a piece of property they had already bought and paid for and paid about 50% in interest on. In addition, this form of taxation assumes, and often falsely, that if you own property then you have money. People should be required to pay what they can afford, not be forced to buy what they already have over and over and over again. </P>
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<DIV></DIV>>"Fifth, concerning the fixed costs of educating a child, you could look at
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<DIV></DIV>>the smallest school districts in Idaho to see what their budgets were, then
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<DIV></DIV>>extrapolate from there. There are four school districts in Idaho (Prairie;
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<DIV></DIV>>Three Creek; Arbon; and Pleasant Valley) that fall into those categories. Of
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<DIV></DIV>>course, fixed costs can be reduced when you have a downsizing of student
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<DIV></DIV>>enrollment. When MSD reaches 50% of its previous size (around 2008-2009),
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<DIV></DIV>>then there's no reason to maintain the same amount of fixed overhead. That's
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<DIV></DIV>>just good business sense. Using your example, if Ford had 50% fewer escorts
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<P>>purchased in 10 years, they would close a plant or two."</P>
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<P>First, I apologize for the bad Escort example, that was poorly written and can see how you misunderstood me. However, I don't think it is a good idea to extrapolate on information from Three Creek, Arbon, and Pleasant Vally as a basis for Moscow school district. This is an entirely separate area with different problems and situations then these areas. Furthermore, "Extrapolation" is considered a fallacy in almost all mathematical equations and prediction unless there is absolutely no interference, or a vacuum, since Idaho does not exist in a vacuum (although it feels like it sometimes) this would be a fallacy to use. Second, we can't shut down the school system. It is mandated that we have a math teacher, science teacher, history teacher, english teacher, PE, and Health teacher a school building, nurse, playground facilities,cafeteria, and quite a few other things . We have to have these. Thus they are called "fixed costs". Fixed costs are the min!
imum amount we can pay and still meet all the government regulations, state and local. After we meet these fixed costs we have more flexibility to decide what we need and want after that. If it costs $500,000 for the fixed costs and we have 50 children it is going to seem like a great of money is being spent on one child. On the other hand, if in another district we have to pay $500,000 in fixed costs and only $2000 per extra child and we have 150 children, guess what? The cost per child is going to seem much much less but the quality of education is actually about the same. </P>
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<P>The MSD can't shut down anymore Junior High or High Schools, it only has one of each. It has shut down elementary schools.</P>
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<DIV></DIV>>"Sixth, concerning the rate of inflation. That is what the discussion is all
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<DIV></DIV>>about. By saying that education must inflate at a rate of 10% (MSD's has
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<DIV></DIV>>been inflating at 9.1% per year), we are buying into the notion that
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<P>>education is its own beast. I'm questioning that very logic.</P>
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<P>Well, I am telling you why Dale, the costs of educating a child is more then it was in the past. </P>
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<P>Here is a list of following reasons:</P>
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<P>Computers, software, fire regulations, ADA Regulations, federal and state regulations, building codes, safety regulations for playgrounds, food regulations, increased number of disabled students, increased number of children further behind when entering school, inflation, increased number of specialists to handle and make sure these regulations are followed, increased number of specialists to deal with new technology problems, increased number of specialists to deal with legal issues, increased number of specialists to deal with violence, social, and cultural differences, increased costs of maintaining, updating, and replacing educational technologies, increased costs for new teaching tools such as Tv's, VCR's, and overhead projectors, increased costs for construction, increased costs for bond levies, increased costs for textbooks, increased costs for teaching a wider varity of subjects such as computers, increased costs for medical coverage of school district employees, !
and increased costs for insurance, and smaller class sizes.</P>
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<P>Now unless you want school principles to be able to regulate all these costs and social problems that are currently out of their control, there is absolutely nothing they can do about it and it is not their fault. </P>
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<P>>"* We see that people in the past had significantly better educations"</P>
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<P>I disagree, many disabled students were not even allowed to receive an education. WOmen were not expected to get as high of an education as men in certain fields. They did not have computers to do research or see foreign lands or learn about them unless they actually went there. They were taught Christopher Columbus found the new world. They were not taught women or Black or Native american History. They were taught Latin, which is a dead language. They didn't understand quantum physics, or cosmic notions, which didn't exist then. They were taught many things that were untrue, and fewer then 10% went on to college. Today about 25% of the adult population has about 4 years of college. </P>
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<DIV></DIV>>"than people today (just look at the SATs/ACTs and the level of writing that
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<DIV></DIV>>we're getting from students today verses 30 years ago. Look at the college
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<DIV></DIV>>entrance requirements from 100 years ago verses today. Most professors at UI
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<DIV></DIV>>couldn't pass a college entrance exam from 100 years ago!); and they did it"
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<P>HA HA! SAT and other standardized tests to test student abilities is the biggest freaking joke in America! Does the SAT test IQ, NO! Does it test creativity, how about dancing, singing, debate, logical thinking skills, cooking skills, computer skills, social skills, ability to draw, cultural awareness? NO! This test doesn't even cover HALF the brain. Furthermore, the test has questions that where the answers are wrong! A 12th grade student in California even found one that was wrong. It asked which one of following shapes can't be made using only a triangle shape. He cut up a bunch triangle shapes and proved that everyone of the shapes list for A) B) C) and D) you could make from a triangle. So if we are giving kids tests that are WRONG! and HAVE WRONG answers listed as the correct answers, and it doesn't test half the brian and has a statistical variance of + or - margin of six points, and a significance rating of only .9, what is the point? Furthermore, I, like about 90!
% of my peers, did not give a damn about those tests. They did not effect our grade in the class. In my class here in 1992 (which you said was the highest ever rated) I didn't even study for it, not one minute, I couldn't care less. I didn't even care to read all the questions except the government portion of the test, because I loved it. I didn't know what those tests meant until my senior year when my councilor called me out of class to talk to me about my tests score and stated I ranked in the top 1-2% of the nation in the area of Government. I also know, that if you did REALLY care about those tests and the "rating of your school" you would just cheat on those scantron tests by running a #2 pencil over the black square on the on side of each question. The computer will count this as a correct answer! Furthermore, did you know that the SAT removes all the questions that most of the students get right the next year to ensure a normal distribution bell curve. Did you also !
know that some students rank in the 1st quartile range of the test one
year and the next year they rank in the bottom quartile range and another student will rank in the 3rd quartile range one year and then the 1st quartile range the next year. Funny how about 50%+ of the student population gains and losses half there intelligence in just one YEAR! Either that or the test is garbage. The only thing Scantron multiple tests are good for is testing ones ability to fill in a bubble without going outside the lines. You guess and have a 25% chance, jeez, is that stupid or what!</P>
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<P>Thanks!</P>
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<P>Donovan J. Arnold</P>
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