[Vision2020] MSD trends

Dale Courtney dale@courtneys.us
Sat, 31 May 2003 17:21:54 -0700


This is a multi-part message in MIME format.

------=_NextPart_000_0084_01C32799.220C0B00
Content-Type: text/plain;
	charset="us-ascii"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

Visionaries:=20

Yesterday, I received some interesting 15-year data from MSD. I just
completed analyzing and graphing it, and thought that some of my =
thoughtful
antagonists may enjoy wrestling through it with me. Here's what I looked =
at:

*	MSD Expenditures=20

*	MSD Enrollment=20

*	MSD Test Scores=20

*	MSD Staffing1=20

  <http://courtneys.us/MSD/images/MSD_trends.jpg>=20

When inflation is taken into consideration, the following three very
interesting trends come out:

*	Fact #1: Adjusting for inflation, MSD's spending has increased at a
rate 3.7 times faster than student enrollment.=20


*	Commentary:=20


*	Interestingly, the rate of loss of students at MSD is about the same
as the economic inflation rate.=20

*	That means we can hold real dollar spending constant and keep the
amount of spending per child the same (i.e., freeze the annual budget =
until
the number of students starts increasing). This is assuming that =
students
are the true economic driver in government education.=20

*	Fact #2: The rate at which staff members are being added to the MSD
payroll is about the same as the rate at which the enrollment is =
decreasing
(3% per year).=20


*	Commentary:=20


*	Of those 52 additional staff additions, 17 were teachers. However,
35 non-teaching full-time staff were also added to the payroll. These
additional 52 people were obviously needed to teach our 336 fewer =
students?=20

*	Fact #3: In spite of a near four-fold increase in inflation-adjusted
spending, test scores have gone from a high of 95.2% in 1992 to a low of =
63%



*	Commentary: This would imply a negative correlation between:=20


*	Spending and test scores.=20

*	Staff size and test scores=20

*	Smaller classes and test scores=20

Can anyone please tell me what sense any of this makes? How is any of =
this
"for the children"? Perhaps Mike Curley can answer this because no one =
from
MSD or the school board has.

If our student enrollment continues to fall at the rate it has been, MSD
will reach 50% of its 1993 maximum size in the 2008-2009 school year. =
Can
anyone justify that we continue to increase inflation-adjusted spending =
when
we're about to educate half as many children? =20

As with other government organizations, I fear that self-perpetuation is =
the
actual goal within MSD.=20

Best,
Dale Courtney
Moscow, Idaho

1 Note: MSD Expenditures, Enrollment, Total School District Staff, and
Enrollment + Inflation are all expressed as a percentage increase over =
FY
1988 levels. The Test Score Percentile Rank is not measured as a change =
from
FY 1988, but rather shows how MSD students' composite average scores on =
the
Tests of Achievement and Proficiency (TAP) ranked, as a percentile, =
against
all test takers nationwide. Because the test score ranking is set =
against a
static 0 to 100 scale, it should not be used as a straight comparison to =
the
other measurements, which can increase indefinitely beyond 100%. The =
test
score rankings over time can be useful, however, for the purposes of
tracking performance trends.


------=_NextPart_000_0084_01C32799.220C0B00
Content-Type: text/html;
	charset="us-ascii"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META HTTP-EQUIV=3D"Content-Type" CONTENT=3D"text/html; =
charset=3Dus-ascii">
<TITLE>Message</TITLE><BASE=20
href=3Dhttp://courtneys.us/MSD/MSD_Trends.htm>
<META http-equiv=3DContent-Language content=3Den-us>
<META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1141" name=3DGENERATOR>
<META content=3DFrontPage.Editor.Document name=3DProgId>
</HEAD>
<BODY>
<DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff>Visionaries: </FONT></DIV>
<P><FONT color=3D#0000ff>Yesterday, I received some interesting 15-year =
data from=20
MSD. I just completed analyzing and graphing it, and thought that some =
of my=20
<I>thoughtful</I> antagonists may enjoy wrestling through it with me. =
Here's=20
what I looked at:</FONT></P>
<UL>
  <LI><FONT color=3D#0000ff>MSD Expenditures</FONT>=20
  <LI><FONT color=3D#0000ff>MSD Enrollment</FONT>=20
  <LI><FONT color=3D#0000ff>MSD Test Scores</FONT>=20
  <LI><FONT color=3D#0000ff>MSD Staffing<SUP>1</SUP></FONT> </LI></UL>
<P><FONT color=3D#0000ff><IMG height=3D457 src=3D"images/MSD_trends.jpg" =
width=3D750=20
border=3D0></FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=3D#0000ff>When inflation is taken into consideration, the =
following=20
three <U>very</U> interesting trends come out:</FONT></P>
<UL>
  <LI><FONT color=3D#800000>Fact #1: Adjusting for inflation, MSD's =
spending has=20
  increased at a rate 3.7 times faster than student enrollment.</FONT>
  <UL>
    <LI><FONT color=3D#0000ff>Commentary: </FONT>
    <UL>
      <LI><FONT color=3D#0000ff>Interestingly, the rate of loss of =
students at MSD=20
      is about the same as the economic inflation rate. </FONT>
      <LI><FONT color=3D#0000ff>That means we can hold <U>real</U> =
dollar spending=20
      constant and keep the amount of spending per child the same (i.e., =
freeze=20
      the annual budget until the number of students starts increasing). =
This is=20
      assuming that students are the true economic driver in government=20
      education.</FONT> </LI></UL></LI></UL>
  <LI><FONT color=3D#800000>Fact #2: The rate at which staff members are =
being=20
  added to the MSD payroll is about the same as the rate at which the =
enrollment=20
  is decreasing (3% per year). </FONT>
  <UL>
    <LI><FONT color=3D#0000ff>Commentary:</FONT>
    <UL>
      <LI><FONT color=3D#0000ff>Of those 52 additional staff additions, =
17 were=20
      teachers. However, 35 non-teaching full-time staff were also added =
to the=20
      payroll. These additional 52 people were obviously needed to teach =
our 336=20
      fewer students?</FONT> </LI></UL></LI></UL>
  <LI><FONT color=3D#800000>Fact #3: In spite of a near four-fold =
increase in=20
  inflation-adjusted spending, test scores have gone from a high of =
95.2% in=20
  1992 to a low of 63% </FONT>
  <UL>
    <LI><FONT color=3D#0000ff>Commentary: This would imply a negative =
correlation=20
    between:</FONT>
    <UL>
      <LI><FONT color=3D#0000ff>Spending and test scores. </FONT>
      <LI><FONT color=3D#0000ff>Staff size and test scores</FONT>=20
      <LI><FONT color=3D#0000ff>Smaller classes and test scores</FONT>=20
    </LI></UL></LI></UL></LI></UL>
<P><FONT color=3D#0000ff>Can <U>anyone</U> please tell me what sense any =
of this=20
makes? How is any of this "for the children"? Perhaps Mike Curley can =
answer=20
this because no one from MSD or the school board has.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=3D#0000ff>If our student enrollment continues to fall at =
the rate=20
it has been, MSD will reach 50% of its 1993 maximum size in the =
2008-2009 school=20
year. Can <U>anyone</U> justify that we continue to<U> increase</U>=20
inflation-adjusted spending when we're about to educate<U> half</U> as =
many=20
children? <U>&nbsp;</U></FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=3D#0000ff>As with other government organizations, I fear =
that=20
self-perpetuation is the actual goal within MSD. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=3D#0000ff>Best,<BR>Dale Courtney<BR>Moscow, =
Idaho</FONT></P>
<P><SUP>1 </SUP>Note: MSD Expenditures, Enrollment, Total School =
District Staff,=20
and Enrollment + Inflation are all expressed as a percentage increase =
over FY=20
1988 levels. The Test Score Percentile Rank is not measured as a change =
from FY=20
1988, but rather shows how MSD students' composite average scores on the =
Tests=20
of Achievement and Proficiency (TAP) ranked, as a percentile, against =
all test=20
takers nationwide. Because the test score ranking is set against a =
static 0 to=20
100 scale, it should not be used as a straight comparison to the other=20
measurements, which can increase indefinitely beyond 100%. The test =
score=20
rankings over time can be useful, however, for the purposes of tracking=20
performance trends.</P></BODY></HTML>

------=_NextPart_000_0084_01C32799.220C0B00--