[Vision2020] taxation

Dale Courtney dmcourtn@moscow.com
Mon, 22 Dec 2003 16:20:47 -0800


Scott,

I forgot -- there was one more thing that I wanted to mention. 

A civilization whose population does not replace itself will die.

The "replacement rate" necessary to sustain a civilization is 2.1 children
per woman (to account for natural deaths, war, disease, etc). 

The United States dipped below 2.1 in 1972 and has never been above 2.1
since then. That's 32 years of non-replacement. 

Europe is seeing this in a worse way than we are. Spain's replacement rate
is down to 1.1 children/woman. The only way for Europe to sustain its
welfare systems is by importing non-European workers. 

So while you may try to argue that we can continue to sustain the welfare
state we've created by placing a larger and larger burden on the backs of
our children, you cannot argue that this can continue for long since the
birth rate itself will not support it. Something has to give. 

Best,
Dale