[Vision2020] Politicians Taking Heat on Trade Laws in NC
Tim Lohrmann
timlohr@yahoo.com
Tue, 26 Aug 2003 10:17:12 -0700 (PDT)
Donovan,
I agree with you that Clark would be a strong
Demo. candidate. The only problem is that even though
he COULD beat Bush he CAN'T win the nomination.
White Demo. primary voters, especially this year
are very anti-war and that translates directly, at
least for many of them, as anti-millitary. I seriously
doubt that these voters will suddenly swoon at Dean's
announcement.
Further, Black Demo. voters are not going to be
especially turned on by a Clark candidacy. Most Black
leaders are either committed to Sharpton or are
leaning to one of the other candidates and won't give
up at this late date.
Also, just as the name of Howard Dean barely
registers outside political junkiedom, Clark's name is
hardly household. He will have a huge financial
struggle in the primary states just getting anyone to
remember who he is.
I'm not saying it can't be done, just that it's
going to be a tough fight just for the nomination.
Then, you can't forget the 800 lb. gorilla hiding in
the closet watching all this---Hillary Clinton.
Hillary looks upon 2008 as her year. Nothing would
hurt her plans more than a sitting Demo. president.
Hillary wants a weak candidate this year so an open
election in '08 will be hers for the taking. Arkansas
or not, she'll do everything she can, including
bringing Bill out to do his aw-shucks-and-jive show
for whoever can beat Clark but will have more trouble
in the general.
On the other factors affecting the election, I'm
not arguing that the economy and many other factors
look bad for Bush at the moment. My only point is that
it's way to early to say he's a dead duck.
Also, your analysis leaves out the impact of
several social issues. Gun control is a good example.
Have you seen any Democrats coming out for more
restrictive gun control lately? Heck no. And that's
because if not for being on the wrong side of the gun
control issue, Algore would be pres. right now. Gore
lost West Virginia (a state that had only voted GOP in
Reagan's re-election against Mondale in recent past)
and his home state of Tenn. precisely because of the
gun issue.
Tim L.
--- Donovan Arnold <donovanarnold@hotmail.com> wrote:
---------------------------------
Tim,
First off, I agree that if the Democrats nominate
Howard Dean they would not win. But they will not
nominate Dean. They will nominate Clark. Clark will
most likely choose another Southerner for the bottom
of the ticket. Most likely Breuex from Louisiana. Do
the math.
Assuming that the 19 states plus DC that have voted
Democratic in every Presidential election for the last
12 years, makes 260 electoral votes. Add Arkansas and
Louisiana and that makes 275. That is not even
counting Florida and Missouri.
You are also forgetting two other important factors.
One, the combination of two southerners on a ticket
could strengthen the vote in the Northern part of
Florida. Clark is also Jewish, and Roman Catholic. In
addition, Clark is military and will turn the military
2-1 vote for the Republicans in the military around to
a 1-1 ratio.
I honestly don't think that Bush can turn the economy
around in 14 months. He is the only President since
Hoover to actually have a net loss in jobs. He needs
to add 3 million jobs to the economy in 14 months. I
don't think he can do that in all reality. Even if the
jobs are created and people get the jobs, they still
will be new employees and not feel secure. It also
takes a good 4-6 months for the effects of any
economic recover to be felt. That gives him less than
ten months. Do you think he can create 300,000 new
jobs a month for the next 10 months? I don't think so.
The unemployment rate is up to 7% now. Very high.
Now, how about what is going on overseas. European
economy is really hurting. That means they will not be
buying much from us anytime soon. Do you think that is
going to help us? No, it will not. Nothing Bush can do
about us losing jobs because nobody is buying US
products. Also, you have the war. An average of 40
soldiers are dying every month. In 14 months that will
be, lets see, 560 more soldiers dead. For a total of
about 700 men and women. More than 75% of Americans
find that an intolerable loss. We will also have spent
another $15 billion. That amount would have solved the
budget problem in California.
Nothing can save old poor Bushy. He is dead in the
water. Even in the best of situations, we catch
Saddam, kill Osama, bring back the electricity in
Iraq, and the economy gets back to where it was when
he came into office, he is still in horrible shape for
reelection.
In the next couple weeks Clark will announce his
candidacy for President. It will be a huge
announcement. Lots of cameras and press, and he will
be endorsed by many Governors, Senators, and
Congressional leaders. He will be immediately put in
second place in the runoff. After four months, many of
the candidates will drop out and put Clark up against
Dean. Clark will eventually win the nomination because
of the South.
Clark and Bush will be in a good race for the
Presidency. Bush and Clark will be focusing in on
Florida, Missouri, Wisconsin, Oregon, Iowa, Nevada,
and New Mexico. If Clark wins just 6 electoral votes
from these states, he wins the election. Which pony
are you putting your money on?
Donovan J Arnold
>From: Tim Lohrmann
>To: Donovan Arnold
>CC: vision2020@moscow.com
>Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Politicians Taking Heat on
Trade Laws in NC
>Date: Mon, 25 Aug 2003 22:19:36 -0700 (PDT)
>
>Donovan,
> Those are premature predictions, bubba.
> We're a year from the elections--several political
>eons.
>
> Can't carry Fla. against whom? Howard Dean? I beg
>to differ.
> With the whole northern part of the state freaked
>about gay marriage and other social issues that the
>GOP will raise and 93% of the Cuban-Americans in the
>Miami area block voting for W with a huge turnout, I
>believe W could win nicely. The same strategy could
be
>used against several possible Demo nominees.
> What about a "bruising" Demo. primary season
>leaving a whole heckuva lot of Demos PO'd and
>unmotivated to work for the eventual nominee?
> What if the Demos dis Sharpton and irritate the
>heck out of a number of black leaders who in turn
>advocate a black voter stay at home strategy on
>election day?
> What if the economy starts springing back around
>just at the right time for ole W?
> What if Cruz Bustamante wins the CA Gov. election
>and things not only don't get better but deteriorate
>out there? Then the Demos might have to invest
heavily
>just to carry CA, a state they're sunk
>without--leaving other close states open for GOP
>attack.
> A bunch of "what-if's" I know, but if one of more
>of them happen like they very well could, your
>prediction could look pretty silly.
> And those are just a few off the top of my head.
>The point is anything can and will happen in 14
>months. It's waaaay too early to write anyone off.
>Especially not a sitting Pres.
>Not when the Demos are still struggling to find
anyone
>who is even interested in learning the names of their
>candidates.
> TL
>
>
>
>
>
>--- Donovan Arnold wrote:
> > Bush Jr. is only a one term president. He is gone.
> > There is no way he can
> > win Florida again. He can't get 270 electoral
votes.
> >
> > Donovan J Arnold
> >
> > >From: Tim Lohrmann
> > >To: vision2020@moscow.com
> > >Subject: [Vision2020] Politicians Taking Heat on
> > Trade Laws in NC
> > >Date: Mon, 25 Aug 2003 21:09:29 -0700 (PDT)
> > >
> > >Looks like GOP'ers and Demos alike are finally
> > going
> > >to face the music for this so-called "Free" trade
> > >globaloney.
> > >At least in the Carolinas.
> > > TL
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >CHARLOTTE OBSERVER.COM
> > > > Posted on Mon, Aug. 25, 2003
> > > >
> > > > Politicians taking heat on trade laws
> > > > Workers, execs criticize Bush, lawmakers over
> > loss
> > > > of factory jobs
> > > > JIM MORRILL & RONNIE GLASSBERG
> > > > Staff Writers
> > > >
> > > > Days after the collapse of Pillowtex,
Republican
> > > > U.S. Rep. Robin Hayes
> > > > walked into a Kannapolis auditorium to meet
with
> > > > former workers.
> > > >
> > > > "Thanks for sending the jobs overseas, Robin!"
> > > > shouted Brenda Miller, a
> > > > longtime worker at the textile giant's
Salisbury
> > > > plant.
> > > >
> > > > Her taunt was part of a loud, growing backlash
> > > > against politicians who
> > > > supported trade policies largely blamed for
the
> > loss
> > > > of more than
> > > > 180,000 Carolinas manufacturing jobs since
> > January
> > > > 2001, when President
> > > > Bush took office.
> > > >
> > > > As unemployment rises in both states, newly
> > militant
> > > > executives are
> > > > criticizing Bush and planning unprecedented
> > > > education and voter drives,
> > > > promising to make sure workers know who's on
> > their
> > > > side and who's not.
> > > >
> > > > "We're seeing a new dynamic where the
executives
> > and
> > > > employees are both
> > > > beginning to see a real threat to their
> > interests,"
> > > > says Fred Reese,
> > > > president of Western N.C. Industries, an
> > employer
> > > > association. "You're
> > > > going to see people who traditionally voted
> > > > Republican switch over."
> > > >
> > > > Jobs, or the lack of them, are an issue across
> > the
> > > > country. Democrats
> > > > are hoping that 2004 becomes a repeat of 1992,
> > when
> > > > Bill Clinton's
> > > > intense focus on the sour economy helped
unseat
> > the
> > > > first President Bush.
> > > >
> > > > In 2000, the Carolinas were George W. Bush
> > country:
> > > > he won more than 56
> > > > percent of the vote in each state. But
mounting
> > job
> > > > losses have taken
> > > > their toll on the president, an unabashed
> > > > free-trader, and threaten
> > > > other trade supporters, particularly in the
> > South.
> > > >
> > > > Andy Warlick, CEO of Parkdale Mills in Gaston
> > > > County, voted for Bush in
> > > > 2000. Next year, he says, he doubts he will.
> > > >
> > > > "He made a lot of promises and he hasn't
> > delivered
> > > > on any of them,"
> > > > Warlick says. "I've had some first-hand
> > experience
> > > > of him sending down
> > > > trade and commerce officials ... but they're
> > just
> > > > photo ops. ... It's
> > > > empty rhetoric."
> > > >
> > > > One of the top reasons for the dismal
Carolinas
> > > > economy: foreign trade.
> > > >
> > > > Since 1993, when Congress passed the
> > Clinton-backed
> > > > North American Free
> > > > Trade Agreement, or NAFTA, jobs in many
> > industries
> > > > have fled overseas.
> > > > For example, about half the textile and
apparel
> > jobs
> > > > that existed in
> > > > 1994 are gone. Critics say "fast-track" trade
> > > > authority and other trade
> > > > measures President Bush pushed through with
> > Vietnam
> > > > and other countries
> > > > can potentially add to the losses.
> > > >
> > > > Experts say the end to quotas on Chinese
> > imports,
> > > > scheduled to expire at
> > > > the end of 2004, could cost 127,000 more
textile
> > > > jobs over the next
> > > > three years in the Carolinas alone.
> > > >
> > > > "They're sending all our jobs overseas," says
> > Leslie
> > > > Barrett, one of
> > > > nearly 5,000 Pillowtex workers who lost their
> > jobs
> > > > in the state's
> > > > largest layoff. "There are not enough jobs
here,
> > and
> > > > then there are all
> > > > these foreign people here."
> > > >
> > > > Not satisfied
> > > >
> > > > In December 2001 Hayes, of Concord, cast the
> > > > tie-breaking vote for
> > > > fast-track. At the time he said he won
promises
> > from
> > > > the Bush
> > > > administration that it would more strictly
> > enforce
> > > > existing trade
> > > > agreements and pressure foreign countries to
> > open
> > > > their markets to U.S.
> > > > textiles."Are we ... pleased with the way they
> > > > responded? Absolutely,"
> > > > says Hayes. "Are we satisfied with where we
are?
> > > > Absolutely not."
> > > >
> > > > In two years, U.S. Rep. Cass Ballenger's 10th
> > > > District has lost nearly
> > > > 40,000 jobs, primarily in the textile and
> > furniture
> > > > industries. The
> > > > Hickory Republican voted for NAFTA and
> > fast-track.
> > > >
> > > > "Certainly, there's a political cost to any
> > > > controversial vote no matter
> > > > which side you take," Ballenger says. "People
> > are
> > > > casting stones, but
> > > > we're trying to pick them up and build
> > something.
> > > > ... I don't spend much
> > > > time thinking about an election that's more
than
> > a
> > > > year away. My focus
> > > > is on helping the region recover."
> > > >
> > > > Hayes later voted against the final version of
> > > > fast-track. He and
> > > > Ballenger aren't the only ones who cast
> > potentially
> > > > unpopular votes.
> > > >
> > > > Rep. John Spratt, a York, S.C., Democrat,
voted
> > for
> > > > NAFTA. Republican
> > > > U.S. Reps. Sue Myrick of Charlotte, Richard
Burr
> > of
> > > > Winston-Salem and
> > > > Jim DeMint of Greenville, S.C., voted for
> > > > fast-track. Both Burr and
> > > > DeMint are running for the Senate.
> > > >
> > > > U.S. Sen. John Edwards, a Democrat from North
> > > > Carolina, voted against
> > > > fast-track in 2002 after voting for an earlier
> > > > version. In 2000 he voted
> > > > for permanent normal trade relations with
China.
> > > >
> > > > Edwards, however, has since attacked Bush's
> > trade
> > > > policies and called
> > > > for fairer trade measures. Burr recently
> > threatened
> > > > to introduce
> > > > legislation to eliminate the office of U.S.
> > trade
> > > > representative. Hayes,
> > > > like Ballenger, has worked hard to get
services
> > to
> > > > displaced workers and
> > > > promote more development in his district.
> > > >
> > > > "Though he (Hayes) voted for fast-track, he is
> > > > really concerned about
> > > > the workers and their conditions in the state
of
> > > > North Carolina," says
> > > > Robert Neal, vice president of the local
chapter
> > of
> > > > the Pillowtex
> > > > workers' union.
> > > >
> > > > Jennifer Duffy, an analyst for the Cook
> > Political
> > > > Report, says
> > > > "Republicans all went to the `Robin Hayes
> > school' in
> > > > terms of learning
> > > > how to address those (trade) votes.
> > > >
> > > > "Republicans have kind of figured out that for
> > every
> > > > `bad' vote they
> > > > cast there are others they would use to show
> > they
> > > > are fighting for the
> > > > state's industries."
> > > >
> > > > `A North Carolina problem'
> > > >
> > > > But Democrats already are pouncing.
> > > >
> > > > "A lot of these Republican candidates --
Richard
> > > > Burr in particular --
> > > > owe the White House and (political adviser)
Karl
> > > > Rove for clearing the
> > > > field for him (Burr)," says Brad Woodhouse, a
> > > > spokesman for the
> > > > Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. "And
> > he's
> > > > (Burr) going to be
> > > > expected to continue to support the
president."
> > > >
> > > > "It's unfortunate that the Democrats want to
> > start
> > > > early pointing
> > > > fingers and starting the traditional blame
> > game,"
> > > > says Burr spokesman
> > > > Paul Shumaker. "It's not a Democrat problem.
> > It's
> > > > not a Republican
> > > > problem. It's a North Carolina problem."
> > > >
> > > > Reese, of the employers association, is
> > organizing
> > > > 1,500 manufacturing
> > > > companies across North Carolina in an effort
to
> > > > leverage what he calls a
> > > > new voting bloc. In South Carolina, voter
drives
> > are
> > > > planned for the
> > > > first time at Milliken & Co., which has about
30
> > > > plants in the state.
> > > > Mount Vernon Mills of Greenville, S.C., is
> > forming a
> > > > political action
> > > > committee.
> > > >
> > > > Company President Roger Chastain, a one-time
> > Bush
> > > > voter, doesn't expect
> > > > to support the president or Jim DeMint.
> > > >
> > > > "We're basically liquidating our whole middle
> > class,
> > > > polarizing people
> > > > on the two extremes, have and have-nots," he
> > says.
> > > > "We'll be a Third
> > > > World country." -- STAFF WRITER JAIME LEVY
> > > > CONTRIBUTED.
> > > >
> > > > -- JIM MORRILL: (704) 358-5059;
> > > > JMORRILL@CHARLOTTEOBSERVER.COM.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >__________________________________
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>
>_____________________________________________________
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> >
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