[Vision2020] Homeschool/Private School vs. Government School enrollment numbers

Dale Courtney dale@courtneys.us
Wed, 16 Apr 2003 09:33:30 -0700


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 Extrapolation
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<DIV><SPAN class=3D617152816-16042003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>First,=20
Tom notes that 16 of the 22 years is projections. Duh! It's hard to =
extrapolate=20
without projecting. </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D617152816-16042003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =

size=3D2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D617152816-16042003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =

size=3D2>Second, if you bother to put a ruler up to the chart, you will =
notice=20
that I've actually <U>not</U> assumed that the bleeding from MSD is =
linear. I've=20
assumed that it's "less than linear" (e.g., it drops off). I've been =
generous in=20
assuming that some kind of tourniquet will be applied somehow.=20
</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D617152816-16042003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =

size=3D2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D617152816-16042003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>Third,=20
I've used the census bureau's figures to determine the growth rate in =
the=20
non-government schools. I've taken that number and the bleeding of MSD =
to=20
combine into the public/private numbers. </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D617152816-16042003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =

size=3D2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D617152816-16042003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =

size=3D2>Finally, I <U>never</U> said "a public/private school". I was =
referring=20
to multiple private schools in the area (and there will be more within =
the next=20
10 years). As for how many homeschoolers there are -- you'll have to =
take your=20
own poll with all your friends. </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D617152816-16042003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =

size=3D2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D617152816-16042003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =

size=3D2>Best,<BR>Dale</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px =
solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV></DIV>
  <DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader lang=3Den-us dir=3Dltr =
align=3Dleft><FONT=20
  face=3DTahoma size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
  vision2020-admin@moscow.com [mailto:vision2020-admin@moscow.com] <B>On =
Behalf=20
  Of </B>Tom Hansen<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, 16 April, 2003=20
  09:18<BR><B>To:</B> Dale Courtney; =
vision2020@moscow.com<BR><B>Subject:</B>=20
  RE: [Vision2020] Homeschool/Private School vs. Government School =
enrollment=20
  numbers<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN =
class=3D893191316-16042003>This is how to=20
  develop your own "truth" with projections.&nbsp; You will notice that =
16 of=20
  the 22 years reflected below are projections.&nbsp; Using Mr. =
Courtney's=20
  "model" , not only will public schools drastically drop in enrollment =
figures,=20
  but they will have to produce the children to disenroll as the number =
goes=20
  negative by 1030.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
  class=3D893191316-16042003></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN =
class=3D893191316-16042003>Question, Mr.=20
  Courtney:&nbsp; What is a "public/private" school that you refer=20
  to?</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
  class=3D893191316-16042003></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN =
class=3D893191316-16042003>Tom=20
  Hansen</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
  class=3D893191316-16042003>Moscow</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE=20
  style=3D"PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px =
solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
    size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
    vision2020-admin@moscow.com =
[mailto:vision2020-admin@moscow.com]<B>On Behalf=20
    Of </B>Dale Courtney<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, April 16, 2003 9:00=20
    AM<BR><B>To:</B> vision2020@moscow.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> =
[Vision2020]=20
    Homeschool/Private School vs. Government School enrollment=20
    numbers<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
    <DIV><SPAN class=3D456075315-16042003><FONT face=3DArial=20
    size=3D2>Visionaries,</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
    <DIV><SPAN class=3D456075315-16042003><FONT face=3DArial=20
    size=3D2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><SPAN class=3D456075315-16042003><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2>Using the MSD=20
    enrollment figures and the 1990 and 2000 census figures, I have =
calculated=20
    that by ~2016 we will have as many people in public/private schools =
as in=20
    government schools. </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
    <DIV><SPAN class=3D456075315-16042003><FONT face=3DArial=20
    size=3D2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><SPAN class=3D456075315-16042003><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2>I'd encourage=20
    all you liberals out there to quickly start having children, so that =
you can=20
    keep the government schools open.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
    <DIV><SPAN class=3D456075315-16042003><FONT face=3DArial=20
    size=3D2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><SPAN class=3D456075315-16042003><FONT face=3DArial=20
    size=3D2>Best,</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
    <DIV><SPAN class=3D456075315-16042003><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2>Dale=20
    Courtney</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
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